When Bongbong Marcos was campaigning for the presidency, one of his most ambitious promises was to lower the price of rice to just 20 pesos per kilogram. This pledge resonated deeply with Filipinos, as rice is a staple food in the country. However, the reality is quite different. By the time Marcos was sworn into office, the price of rice was averaging around 40 pesos per kilogram, and by 2024, it had surged to over 50 pesos per kilogram.
So why hasn’t the 20-peso rice materialized? Is it merely a political gimmick, or is there a path to making this a reality?
The Importance of Rice in the Philippines
Rice is more than just a staple food; it is a cultural cornerstone and a crucial component of the consumer basket. It makes up about 25% of household expenditures, meaning fluctuations in its price significantly impact national stability. Despite its significance, the Philippines remains one of the world’s largest rice importers, struggling for decades to achieve self-sufficiency.
To illustrate the country’s dependence on imports, data from PhilRice shows that in 2023, the Philippines imported over 2.86 million metric tons of rice, making it the largest importer, surpassing even Indonesia, China, and the United States.
Marcos’ promise was not just about lowering rice prices but about strengthening the agricultural sector. His vision was to boost local production, reduce reliance on imports, and stabilize supply chains. His administration has pushed initiatives such as mechanization programs, fertilizer subsidies, irrigation projects, and direct farmer support. But despite these efforts, challenges remain.
Challenges to Rice Self-Sufficiency
Several factors hinder the Philippines from achieving rice self-sufficiency and bringing down costs:
- Natural Disasters and Climate Change – The country frequently experiences typhoons that devastate rice production. For instance, Typhoon Jolina in 2021 caused over 1.3 billion pesos in damages, affecting nearly 50,000 farmers and destroying over 51,000 metric tons of rice.
- Outdated Farming Practices and Policy Inconsistencies – Many farmers still use traditional, inefficient methods, while government policies on land use and subsidies fluctuate, creating uncertainty.
- Hoarding and Price Manipulation – Market inefficiencies contribute to price inflation. Reuters reported that while President Marcos reduced rice tariffs from 35% to 15% to lower import costs, domestic prices did not fall proportionately. This suggests hoarding and artificial price hikes by middlemen.
- Government Subsidies and Price Controls – While temporary price caps can curb inflation, they may also discourage private investment in agriculture. Additionally, the National Food Authority (NFA), tasked with regulating rice supply, has struggled with mismanagement and inefficiencies.
Is Rice Production Increasing?
To assess the success of Marcos’ agricultural policies, we can examine annual palay (unmilled rice) production. This is a key indicator of rice supply and productivity.
Despite government efforts, palay production has actually declined. In 2022, production was 19.76 million metric tons, but by 2024, it had dropped to 19.09 million metric tons. Several factors could explain this decline, including typhoons, rising production costs, global market disruptions, and inefficiencies in agricultural policies.
Is 20-Peso Rice Possible?
Given the numerous structural challenges, it appears unlikely that the Philippines will achieve 20-peso rice in the near future. Even the Department of Agriculture has admitted that reaching this price point is not feasible anytime soon. Critics argue that the promise was more about political appeal than economic viability.
Looking Beyond Rice Prices
While cheap rice is an attractive campaign promise, the broader economic context must be considered. The Philippines is increasingly shifting towards a service-driven economy, with agriculture playing a smaller role in GDP over the decades. While food security remains crucial, economic growth hinges more on industries such as technology, outsourcing, and infrastructure.
In the end, while the dream of 20-peso rice may remain elusive, Filipinos should focus on broader economic opportunities and sustainable agricultural reforms. The debate over rice prices should not overshadow the need for long-term strategies to enhance food security and economic resilience.