The economy of the Philippines under President Bongbong Marcos has faced significant criticism. Numerous reports from think tanks and prominent individuals accuse Marcos of contributing to the country’s weak economic performance. One such think tank, the IBON Foundation, claims that the Philippines is regressing and that the Marcos administration is merely trying to convince the public otherwise.
The IBON Foundation also highlights that the Philippines has the fourth-highest inflation rate and the second-highest unemployment rate among Southeast Asian countries. Additionally, the economy is struggling with low exports and declining foreign investments.
An article from Al Jazeera, which also references the IBON Foundation, criticizes Marcos’s policies, stating that while they may benefit certain businesses, they fail to promote widespread national development. The article also cites a report from the Social Weather Stations, an independent polling group, showing that the self-rated poverty level has risen to 58 percent, an increase that represents an additional 3.1 million families living in poverty. According to IBON, the Marcos administration is excessively promoting economic growth to distract from these more pressing issues affecting the well-being of the people.
It’s not just think tanks that are critical of the Marcos administration. In January 2024, Davao City Mayor Baste Duterte, from the prominent Duterte political family, called for President Marcos to resign. He accused Marcos of lacking compassion and being lazy and argued that the programs of former President Rodrigo Duterte, including his controversial anti-drug campaign, should be continued.
This event is part of a broader pattern of political instability within the Marcos administration. Former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was demoted from her position as senior deputy speaker of the House of Representatives after being suspected of leading a coup against the Congress leadership, though she denied these accusations. The Speaker, Ferdinand Martin Romualdez, confirmed that there had been an attempt to “destabilize” the House leadership. Following this, Vice President Sara Duterte resigned as a member and chairperson of Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats, the largest party in Congress.
Additionally, a survey published in March 2024 revealed that the number of Filipinos who expect the economy to improve within the year has dropped to its lowest level since the height of the pandemic. Optimism about the economy has significantly declined, from a high of 56 percent after Marcos’s election in 2022 to 40 percent in December 2023.
These developments suggest growing divisions in the Philippines under President Marcos, evident in both his economic management and government leadership.
However, does this mean the future is bleak under President Bongbong Marcos? Not necessarily. It’s important to consider reliable data and trusted institutions.
One such institution is the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The ADB is a global development organization focused on promoting social and economic development in Asia. Their credibility is considered higher than that of local think tanks or news outlets, which may have their own agendas. In a recent report released in July 2024, the ADB projected that the Philippine economy would grow by over 6 percent this year, placing the country alongside Vietnam as one of the fastest-growing economies in Southeast Asia. The ADB further predicted that this growth would increase to 6.2 percent in 2025, maintaining the Philippines’ position as a regional leader in economic growth.
Similarly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), another globally recognized institution, has stated that the Philippine economy is expected to accelerate over the next two years. According to the IMF, the GDP growth rate could exceed 6 percent, making the Philippines not only one of the fastest-growing economies in Southeast Asia but also the second-fastest in Asia, just behind India. The IMF also noted that the Philippine economy has continued to perform well despite external challenges and policy tightening.
While concerns about poverty in the Philippines persist, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) has reported a decrease in the number of Filipinos living in poverty. Official government data from mid-2024 showed that 17.54 million Filipinos were living in poverty in 2023, resulting in a poverty incidence of 15.5 percent, down from 19.99 million poor Filipinos in 2021. This improvement exceeded the government’s target for 2023.
According to the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), these figures demonstrate progress and reflect the government’s commitment to implementing effective policies that improve the lives of Filipinos.
So, while a local think tank may view the Philippine economy as weak, globally respected institutions like the ADB and IMF present a more positive outlook. The choice of whom to believe is up to you.
As for political instability, is the divide between the Marcos and Duterte families really a sign of a weakening government? This is a more complex issue.
Part of this divide may be influenced by international allegiances. Former President Rodrigo Duterte has maintained friendly ties with China, while the current administration has welcomed a greater U.S. military presence in the Philippines. In an article in the Global Times, a state-run Chinese news organization, Duterte expressed concern over the Marcos administration’s policies toward China and warned that the U.S. might provoke a conflict between China and the Philippines. However, it’s important to note that the Global Times is known for its biased reporting, often reflecting the views of the Chinese government. This raises the question of whether the political divide between Marcos and Duterte is truly based on national interests or influenced by external agendas.
So, is the political instability in the Philippines a result of self-serving leadership, or is it driven by external influences? Understanding these dynamics is crucial, especially when considering the role of foreign powers like China. Why would former President Duterte appear in a Chinese propaganda outlet if his goal is to serve Filipinos? This is a question worth pondering.