India and China have experienced several border conflicts over the past few decades, particularly in the regions of Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh. These disputes have caused ongoing tensions between the two countries. While a full-scale war may seem unlikely, it is not entirely impossible. If such a conflict were to occur, who would ultimately come out on top? At first glance, it might appear that China has the upper hand. China’s economy has far outpaced India’s, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reporting that China’s GDP in 2023 was over 17.66 trillion US dollars, compared to India’s 3.57 trillion dollars. While a strong economy does not always equate to military dominance, it does provide the resources needed to build and sustain a large, technologically advanced military.
For instance, China’s robust economy allows it to invest heavily in military capabilities. Unlike India, China doesn’t need to allocate as much of its budget to infrastructure development, human capital, or healthcare services. While these areas are still important for China, they are even more critical for India, which must prioritize economic growth. As a result, India has less money available to invest in its military. Looking at military spending, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s 2022 data, China spent 309 billion dollars on its military, making it the second-largest spender globally, just behind the United States with over 880 billion dollars. India, by comparison, spent 83.3 billion dollars. Although India spends less in absolute terms, it dedicates a larger share of its government budget to the military—8.1 percent in 2023 compared to China’s 5 percent. This indicates that India places a higher priority on its military in terms of government spending, even though the overall figures are lower.
Despite this, it is evident that China’s military is significantly stronger. But these figures don’t tell the whole story. Let’s consider the equipment, which is the most crucial aspect of any military. Equipment, ranging from fighter jets to submarines, is the true measure of a military’s strength, not just spending. India may spend less on its military, but it also requires less money to employ personnel, build fighter jets, pay soldiers, and maintain military infrastructure. This is partly due to lower labor costs in India, which allows the country to stretch its defense budget further in some areas. However, when it comes to the quality and technological advancement of military equipment, China has made substantial progress, giving it a significant advantage over India.
Let’s start by looking at their air forces, which would play a crucial role in any potential conflict. India’s air force relies heavily on foreign-purchased equipment, unlike China, which produces its own fighter jets. India operates the Dassault Rafale, a multirole fighter jet, with about 62 in service, including those used by the navy. These jets are the backbone of India’s air force. The Rafale is known for its versatility, capable of performing air-to-air combat, air-to-ground strikes, and reconnaissance missions. It features advanced sensors, radars, and cameras and carries a variety of weapons, including the Meteor missile for air-to-air combat and the AASM for air-to-ground missions. The Rafale has a maximum speed of Mach 1.8 and a range of over 3,700 kilometers with external fuel tanks.
China, on the other hand, fields the J-20 fighter jet, its most advanced aircraft. China has around 200 to 230 of these jets, far outnumbering India’s Rafales. The J-20, China’s first 5th generation fighter jet, was introduced in 2017 and is often compared to the F-22 and Su-57. While the specifications of the J-20 are classified, it is widely regarded as one of the top fighter jets in the world, just behind the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II. The Rafale, although highly capable, ranks lower, though still within the top 10 globally.
In terms of total air force size, China outmatches India. According to Global Fire Power, China’s air force has about 3,304 aircraft, including 1,207 fighters, such as the Chengdu J-7 and Shenyang J-11. India, by comparison, has 2,296 aircraft, 606 of which are fighters. While India’s air force includes some new and advanced aircraft, many are still not as technologically advanced as China’s. However, the future introduction of the HAL AMCA, a fifth-generation stealth multirole combat aircraft, could enhance India’s air force, but mass production is still some time away.
Next, let’s compare their navies. India’s most significant naval assets include its warships, submarines, and aircraft carriers. The Indian Navy operates submarines like the Arihant class, Kalvari class, Sindhughosh class, and Shishumar class, with the Arihant class being the most powerful. These nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines were developed under the $11 billion Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV) project. India’s navy also includes 294 total naval assets, 18 submarines, and 2 aircraft carriers—the Vikrant class and the Kiev class. Additionally, India has 12 destroyers, 12 frigates, and 18 corvettes.
In contrast, China’s navy is much larger, with over 730 total naval assets. China has 3 aircraft carriers, with the latest, the Fujian, recently launched. The Fujian outclasses India’s aircraft carriers significantly, with a full-load displacement of more than 80,000 tons, nearly double that of India’s Vikrant class. China also has 61 submarines, including the Jin class, each equipped with 12 missile tubes capable of launching JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) with a range of up to 7,200 kilometers. Additionally, China’s navy includes 49 destroyers, 42 frigates, and 72 corvettes, ranging from the Type 055 destroyer to the Type 054A frigate and the Type 056 corvette.
Finally, let’s examine their armies. Although land forces are less crucial than naval and air forces in 21st-century warfare, they are still important. India’s army has 4,614 tanks, over 151,248 vehicles, and several thousand artillery pieces. China’s army, however, is larger, with over 5,000 tanks, 174,300 vehicles, and roughly 8,000 artillery pieces.
One of the most critical components of a country’s military is its missile arsenal. India’s most advanced missile is the Agni-V, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with a range of over 5,000 kilometers. First tested in 2012, it has undergone multiple tests and is launched from a sealed canister on a road-mobile launcher, reducing launch preparation time.
China, meanwhile, has missiles like the FN-6 and YJ-21, capable of reaching speeds up to Mach 10 with a range of approximately 1,500 kilometers. While their range is shorter, these missiles are capable of striking targets like American aircraft carriers, according to Chinese sources.
So, can India’s military take on China’s? For now, it seems unlikely that India could win a war, especially if missiles are involved. However, this may change as India continues to develop its own domestic manufacturing capabilities.