Over the past few years, the Philippines’ relationship with China has deteriorated, especially due to the growing tensions in the West Philippine Sea. China has been deploying its coast guard, drawing criticism from several Western countries for harassing Filipino fishermen in the disputed waters. Some believe that the next global conflict might not emerge in the Middle East or Europe but right here in the South China Sea. However, the challenge lies in China’s massive military power. As the world’s second-largest economy and military force, China has advanced fighter jets, aircraft carriers, and deadly warships. On the other hand, the Philippines, a much smaller nation, lacks the strength to defend against potential Chinese aggression. So, the question arises: Can the Philippines’ military stand up to China? The simple answer is no.
Consider the stark difference between the two nations’ military capabilities. According to GlobalFirePower, China’s defense budget exceeds $227 billion, while the Philippines only allocates $4.1 billion. China employs over 3.17 million military personnel, compared to the Philippines’ 1.3 million, many of whom are reserves rather than active soldiers. But beyond these numbers, the equipment gap is even more significant.
Let’s start with air power. The Philippines has only 195 aircraft, many of which are outdated or refurbished. Their most notable asset is 12 South Korean KAI FA-50 light strike jets, used in various missions, but they stand no chance against China’s top-tier fighters. In comparison, China boasts over 3,300 aircraft, including the Chengdu J-10, the backbone of their air force, and the highly advanced Chengdu J-20, a fifth-generation fighter jet with still unknown but likely formidable capabilities.
The naval situation is even more concerning. In a conflict, battles would likely occur in the West Philippine Sea. However, the Philippines only has 111 naval assets, consisting mainly of small frigates, corvettes, and patrol vessels. Their most significant ships are the Jose Rizal-class frigates from South Korea. In contrast, China has over 730 naval assets, including destroyers, frigates, submarines, and several aircraft carriers. China’s Shandong aircraft carrier, commissioned in 2019, displaces over 65,000 tons, while their latest carrier, the Fujian (Type 003), displaces over 80,000 tons. China’s naval power alone could potentially overwhelm the entire Philippine military.
Given these vast differences, how can the Philippines defend itself? One possible answer lies in missile defense systems. Over recent years, the Philippines has invested heavily in these systems to protect against foreign threats. They have acquired Indian BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles, capable of targeting locations up to 290-300 kilometers away. One of these systems is stationed at a base in Western Luzon, within range of Scarborough Shoal, a key disputed territory with China.
The Philippines has also added the SPYDER (Surface-to-Air Python and Derby) missile defense system, which uses advanced missiles to counter aerial threats. Developed by Israel, the system was officially introduced into the Philippine Air Force in 2022. However, even with these additions, they still pale in comparison to China’s military might.
So, is the Philippines doomed in the event of a conflict with China? If the Philippines were to face China alone, the outcome would indeed be one-sided. However, the Philippines has been strengthening its alliances with foreign powers, especially the United States. President Bongbong Marcos has sought support from the US, Japan, Australia, and other Western nations. If tensions escalate into a full-blown conflict, it is likely that the US and other allies would support the Philippines. The US has even positioned key missile defense systems in the country, including the Mid-Range Capability (MRC) missile system and the Typhon missile system, which have raised alarms in China due to their capability of striking targets up to 1,600 kilometers away.
Japan has also stepped up, signing defense deals with the Philippines to protect its sovereignty in the West Philippine Sea. These alliances are vital because, while the Philippines’ military may not be enough to defend against China, its foreign partnerships provide significant leverage.
In conclusion, while the Philippines’ military may be small compared to China, its growing international alliances are key to defending its sovereignty. The focus for the Philippines is less about building a large military and more about maintaining strong relationships with powerful nations. These partnerships will be crucial in protecting the country and its interests in the West Philippine Sea.