Recently, there’s been a lot of talk about how the United States will defend the Philippines if a Filipino is harmed by a foreign attack. On April 15, President Marcos confirmed that such an event would activate the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the U.S., a formal agreement signed back in 1951. This treaty binds the United States and the Philippines to support each other in the event of an external attack on either nation. According to the MDT, an armed attack on either the Philippines or the United States in the Pacific area would compel both countries to come to each other’s defense. This mutual defense commitment is intended to deter potential aggressors and maintain stability in the region.
The 1951 MDT includes specific provisions, such as Article 4, which states, “Each Party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific area on either of the Parties would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common dangers in accordance with its constitutional processes.”
This is the reason why the United States is committed to defending the Philippines. However, let’s talk about the recent aggressor: China. China has committed several actions that have negatively impacted the Filipino people. For example, on March 5, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) used two civilian vessels for a resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre stationed at Ayungin Shoal. During this operation, two Chinese Coast Guard vessels used water cannons on one of the Philippine boats, the Unaizah May 4. This attack shattered the boat’s windscreen and injured four members of the Filipino Navy.
Was this not an attack on the Filipino people? It might not qualify as one under the treaty because they used water cannons instead of actual military force. The term “armed attack” in the MDT suggests the use of military force with a certain level of violence, which is not explicitly defined in the treaty. The incident at Ayungin Shoal, while serious, may not meet the criteria of an “armed attack” as defined by the MDT since it involved limited damage and minor injuries.
Another incident occurred in December 2023, when China used water cannons again. Armed Forces of the Philippines Chief General Romeo Brawner Jr. stated that the Mutual Defense Treaty with the U.S. should not be activated yet because “water cannoning does not qualify as an armed attack.”
General Brawner also noted that China is using “gray zone tactics.”
According to the National Defense College of the Philippines, gray zone tactics involve actions that are more aggressive than normal deterrence but do not involve significant direct force. These tactics aim to achieve security goals without escalating to open conflict. In the West Philippine Sea, China has been involved in activities such as shadowing, blocking, executing hazardous maneuvers, and using lasers against the Philippines.
This might explain why there are always annual military exercises between the Philippines and the United States. Take, for example, Exercise Balikatan, which is the most well-known and significant annual exercise between the two nations.
In 2024, the Balikatan exercises are expected to be the largest ever, with over 16,000 personnel from the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the U.S. military participating. Notably, for the first time, the Australian Defence Force and the French Navy will also join the exercises, alongside contingents from 14 nations, including Brunei, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, as part of the AFP-hosted international observer program.
Balikatan 2024 will involve a range of complex missions, including maritime security, sensing and targeting, air and missile defense, dynamic missile strikes, cyber defense, and information operations. The Philippine Navy, U.S. Navy, and French Navy will conduct a Multilateral Maritime Exercise within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.
Following the announcement of these drills, China expressed its concerns.
In response to the scheduled exercises, Lin Jian, a spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry, warned the Philippines at a regular press conference, stressing that involving foreign nations to showcase military strength in the South China Sea could heighten tensions and destabilize the region.
“Inviting outside powers to protect what it claims as its security will only increase its own vulnerability,” Lin stated, urging both nations to avoid provocations.
Despite these warnings, U.S. troops and the Philippine military will simulate retaking islands occupied by hostile forces in the northernmost islands of the country, near Taiwan, and in the western Palawan province, which faces the South China Sea.